Largest COVID-19 Natural Immunity Study By CDC Shows That Infection And Vaccination Provide Nearly Equal Protection Against Hospitalization & Reinfection
Bombshell data
Every week CDC releases research they’ve conducted in their epidemiological digest named Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. On 1/19/22 they released the largest US study on natural immunity accounting for nearly 20% of the population. Essentially, the publication implied that protection from re-infection, and hospitalization in unvaccinated but naturally immune people, was nearly identical to those that were vaccinated. This is enormous, as CDC is now hinting that natural immunity can no longer be ignored. In this publication you will learn 2 things:
Important figures from CDC’s natural immunity study
The implications of those figures on vaccine, and mask mandates
The Data
Study looked at COVID-19 data from California, and New York between May - November 2021
The aim- to analyze what ways vaccination, and natural immunity during Delta (mainly) impacted the population, and how that data could guide public health planning/guidance going forward
Cases and hospitalizations were measured against cohorts listed immediately below
4 cohorts 18+: GROUP 1*.) unvaccinated with no previous infection, 2.) vaccinated with no previous infection, 3.) unvaccinated with previous infection, and 4.) vaccinated with previous infection
HOW MUCH WERE COVID CASES LOWERED COMPARED TO GROUP 1* (DELTA) DURING WEEK OF OCTOBER 3rd 2021: 1.) vaccinated (w/2 mRNA/ or 1 J&J) with no prior infection = cases 6.2-fold lower in California, and 4.5-fold lower in New York, 2.) unvaccinated with prior infection= cases 29-fold lower in California, and 14.7-fold lower in New York, 3.) vaccinated with prior infection= cases 32.5-fold lower in California, and 19.8-fold lower in New York
HOW MUCH WERE HOSPITALIZATIONS IN CA LOWERED COMPARED TO GROUP 1*: 1.) vaccinated with no prior infection= hospitalization 19.8-fold lower, 2.) unvaccinated with prior infection= hospitalization 55.3-fold lower, 3.) vaccinated with prior infection= hospitalization 57.5-fold lower
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: Natural immunity and vaccination seem to yield similar rates of re-infection and hospitalization. Meaning, vaccination and previous infection, and unvaccinated with previous infection yield the same protection against hospitalization and reinfection
As you can see in the graph below, the estimated hazard rate of 1.) unvaccinated with previous diagnosis, 2.) vaccinated with no previous diagnosis, and 3.) vaccinated with previous diagnosis ARE IDENTICAL. Again, that means the probability of hospitalization, and reinfection are similar between all 3 groups
DISCLAIMER: This data covers delta not omicron. However, omicron in most recent data has exhibited a 53% reduced risk of any subsequent hospitalization, 53% reduced risk of symptomatic hospitalization, 74% reduced risk of ICU admission, and 91% reduced risk of death compared to Delta. Since omicron is seemingly less severe than delta, this new CDC study gives more credence to those who believe natural immunity from previous infection is strong and should be considered along with vaccination, and it should.
What does all this mean for natural immunity?
This is a huge win for natural immunity and will likely shape vaccine and masking guidance going forward. The data clearly shows that reduction in hospitalization, and case counts are nearly equal in those that received vaccination compared to those that didn’t (in all combinations). With that said, a few things need to happen if and when the CDC updates their vaccination and masking guidance.
First, in light of the highly transmissible yet less virulent variant omicron which is currently evading vaccine induced immunity , CDC needs to change their vaccine guidance. Specifically, they need to recommend against boosters for omicron as they no longer provide appropriate protection against the mutated variant.
Second, for the reasons mentioned directly above, CDC needs to recommend that masking is no longer warranted, but encouraged. Such a change would justify ridding harmful masking mandates for children and adults.
Third, CDC needs to recommend that isolation after mild-omicron is no longer necessary as the variant induces mild symptoms for most. Isolating may have been justified in light of delta and wild-type variant when hospitalizations, mortality, and ventilation was high. However, that is no longer the case with omicron.
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