A new preprint from the Lancet revealed that mRNA vaccines had no effect on overall mortality against COVID-19. That is important because the public should not be advised to utilize a treatment where arguably the most important purported benefit doesn’t exist- risk reduction from death.
Now, Just so it’s clear, and to set the table, it is undeniable that at this point in time COVID-19 vaccines do provide some trivial degree of protection against severe disease. However, let it be known, most protection against severe disease and even death has been conferred by multiple exposures to multiple variants, not so much from 2 or 3 doses of a COVID vaccine. That said, the data from this study will be explored and implications laid out relating to the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against death.
Important findings
From the information presented in this study, two statements can be made
💉 mRNA vaccines had no effect on overall mortality compared to placebo
🫀 mRNA vaccines were associated with increased cardiovascular deaths compared to placebo
Definitions
There needs to be no confusion over the terms “overall morality”, and “association” so below they will be defined
Overall mortality = Is an umbrella term meaning: COVID-19 deaths, accidental deaths, cardiovascular deaths & other non-COVID-19 deaths, hence the term OVERALL
Association = a connection, or relation, but not necessarily a cause
Important facts to know about this study before reading further
Data are based on many randomized controlled trials
Both vaccines (mRNA & adenovirus vector) to a degree protected against COVID-19 death but the adenovirus vector offering had a lower relative risk against overall mortality than mRNA vaccines. That said, looking at the big picture, mRNA vaccines had no effect on overall mortality where adenovirus vector vaccines did. To be specific, mRNA vaccines were associated with a 63% (0.37, 0.19-0.70 p=0.030) increased risk in overall morality VS placebo
mRNA (PFIZER & MODERNA) arm results summarized
The mRNA arm contained data from 2 large randomized controlled trials (RCT) + 1 Curevac RCT (Curevac was not included as death data was not explained)
74,193 participants
61 deaths (mRNA: 31 VS placebo: 30). So, 31 deaths associated w/ mRNA, VS 30 w/ placebo. OBSERVATION 1 = NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN OVERALL MORTALITY FROM TAKING AN mRNA VACCINE(SEE FIG. 1 📸)
2-3 month follow up only as the control arm was also given the vaccine
Relative risk (RR) of overall mortality for Pfizer & Moderna VS placebo 1.03 (95% CI= 0.063-1.71). OBSERVATION 2 = IF ANYTHING, THERE WAS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED RISK (3%) OF OVERALL MORTALITY FROM TAKING AN mRNA VACCINE (SEE FIG. 2 📸)
27/54 or 50% of “non-covid” deaths were cardiovascular deaths OF WHICH 16 were directly associated with Pfizer & Moderna recipients VS 0 cardiovascular mortality in adenovirus vector vaccine cohort. OBSERVATION 3 = THERE WAS AN INCREASED RISK OF CARDIOVASCULAR COMPLICATIONS AFTER TAKING AN mRNA VACCINE VS ADENOVIRUS VECTOR VACCINE. IMPORTANTLY, THIS EFFECT HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED IN OTHER STUDIES. MOREOVER, cardiovascular complications experienced were the following; myocardial infarction, haemorrhagic stroke, congestive cardiac failure, cardiac arrest, aortic rupture, etc (SEE FIG. 3 📸)
FIG. 1 📸
FIG. 2 📸
FIG. 3 📸
Adenovirus vector (AstraZeneca, J&J, Gam-CoV-Vac arm results summarized
6 RCTs
122,164 participants
46 deaths (Vax: 16 VS placebo: 30). So, 16 deaths associated with adenovirus vector vaccine, and 30 with placebo. OBSERVATION 4: Lower overall mortality (nearly 50% less) associated with this vaccine VS mRNA
RR of overall mortality from adenovirus vector vaccine VS not getting it was 63% (0.37, 95% CI= 0.19-0.70) less than placebo. OBSERVATION 5: THE RISK OF OVERALL MORALITY IN THOSE WHO RECEIVED AN ADENOVIRUS VECTOR VACCINE WAS 63% LESS THAN THOSE WHO DID NOT RECEIVE THE VACCINE
Again, cardiovascular mortality in those who received this vaccine was 0 VS 5 in the placebo arm. OBSERVATION 6: ADENOVIRUS VECTOR VACCINES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A REDUCED RISK OF OVERALL MORTALITY (SEE FIG. 4 📸)
FIG. 4 📸
Confounders/ Problems with the study
There were some problems with this study for sure. However, before you read about them keep in mind the associations seen above have also been seen in other studies (links here, and here, SEE FIG.5 📸). Anyways, here are the confounders.
Cohorts were from different socioeconomic status & outcomes based on that were not accounted for very well. To explain, people in higher socioeconomic categories typically have better outcomes because of better, healthier behaviors than the anthesis. There were more people with higher status in this study
mRNA cohort had a slightly longer follow up than the adenovirus vector cohort
Many participants included in trials were in good health (however, most people are, so this variable should only be taken lightly at best)
FIG. 5 📸
Conclusion
As stated above there are 3 major take aways. First, mRNA vaccines were not associated with lower overall mortality. Second, mRNA vaccines were associated with increased cardiovascular death. Third, and finally, if anything there was a slightly increased risk of mortality associated with taking an mRNA vaccine.
LETS CONNECT:
Of all the substack, YouTube, etc, people I am subscribed to you are my favorite. Please NEVER stop. Even when people get tired of hearing the stats (which they will act shocked at in the next year or two and then will become old and unimportant news), everyone needs to be reminded as frequently as possible about the *principles* that were violated here.